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full tilt poker`s system crashed trying to get my avatar on the system, keeping me from playing the $400,000 guarantee and keeping me from making updates for several hours.
the semi-finals are going on right now.
shannon elizth has a small lead over l wasicka, and chad brown has a big lead over gavin smith.
i`ll write a bit about what`s going on, as well as how they got here, but i wrote a feature while the site was down to prov some insight into the heads-up games of the players at this level.
i have gotten some anecdotalrmation about heads-up play from watching the matches, talking with the players, and knowing a few things about poker (specific to the participants and the situations).
i consred doing areful,prehensive analysis.
but why do that when in tn a bunch of as at you?
gavin smith and spook culture ` gavin loves to play garbagerds.
he does it for the same reason ted forrest does: younat aces easier with t-4s than youn with kings, and you`ll probably lose less.
with aep stack (and the early levels of the heads-up matches areep-stack, but not the later levels), hand values frequently inverted.
it`s hard to shut someone with an inferior hand out of a potfore the flop, ort enough to make it bad iness for them to pay to see the flop.
(in addition, if you try to make it super-expensive, then you`re telling your opponents `this is my aces-raise,pared with my smaller k-qs-raise.`)
the man with t-4s isually going to lose,ually t that one preflopt.
but how much is he going to win when he wins? potentially everything.
there is an aspect of risk, however.
against phil gordon`s aces, gavin got his money in correctly with th-4h after a flop of q-8-9 with two hearts.
he was almost 50% and bying the one to h, he would have gotten a lot of hands that weretter than his (or would haveentter after the nextrd if it didn`t make a straight or fh to gavin) to fold.
imagine if you have a-8 and someone hes all-in on you? or pocket tens? especially early in the match.
in fact, phil had the hand that will never fold, with pocket aces, one of them matching the suit of twords on the board.
so gavin was potentially losing a lot more than his preflopt.
that probably has something to do with why he hed all-in.
tot enough and leave helf folding money if he misses on the turn means that hen lose a lot with t-4s, and the reason you play that hand with aep stack is to have a much greater ratio of what youn win to what youn lose.
pocket pairs are muchtter hands to play in theep-stack-worse-hand-passestter-hand-on-the-flop game.
imagine if gavin had pocket eights.
or pocket ces and the flop was q-8-2.
instead ofing in the position of ned the folding equity or needing to win a coin flip to keep froming eliminated, he would have gotten in his money with the `worse` hand (preflop) with gordon drawing nearlyad.
that`s why guys like gavin and ted forrest confound the poker world by playing junk.
at least, that`s a little bit of it.
i`ve gotten t a glimpse of the dark art so it`s all i know.
shannon elizth`s angel heart ` shannon elizth is playing one of thest players in the world, a man she kn and respects, and whose towering poker achievements threaten to intimidate her, barry greenstein.
but she sits on her emotions and plays the part of pokerbatant, the most stereotypl area whereing a professional actress is helpful in poker.
she`s hitting some flops and taking pots away from greenstein by leading out on the turn, or raising on the river.
she has a chip lead.
shells a raise with j-6.
the flop is magic: j-j-6.
this is johnny chan ver young erik sel stuff.
chan flops the straight on the last hand of the 1988 world series andks it until sel hes all-in.
shannonlls barry`st on the flop.
thenlls hist on the turn.
it`s not until barryts the river that she raises all-in.
barry, who rivered a straight with his a-t,lls and loses.
so i asked shannon this morning, `how did you sit on your emotions after you flopped a boat? was your heart pounding in your chest?`
`whenever i sit down to one of these matches, my heart is already pounding.
i t tried to take my time, act like i missed the flop, hope hets.
i didn`t even realize by the end that he could have had queen-jack or something andaten me.
i t wanted to wait as long as i could to get my money in.`
that idiot (a/k/a andy bloch) ` i asked andy bloch at dinner after the first day of matches, `from your match and everything you hear, doesn`t it seem to you that top pros know less about the basics of heads-up play than you would imagine?` andy was too diplomatic to agree with the general statement but there were many aspects of heads-up play that seemed obvi to bloch and othershool in game theory that will not well urstood.
if i act like i know what i`m talking about (especially when it is critl of other pros, many of whom have wonlions at tournament poker), it`sce i spent a year working on a book with andy bloch, chris feron, howard lrer, and nine other top pros.
in`t tell you that they told me everything they know, or that i know how to apply it all or reason from it.
and i obvily don`t have the experience yond a high volume of ine tournaments, which hasen pretty positive) taking this advice to the tables.
but i have some urstanding of what many of these players are doing, what they are trying to aplish, and at least generally how they think these things through.
the way andy bloch thinks about heads-up, and annie duke, and howard lrer, and chris feron, is that certain plays are dictated by game theory, the simplesting that youn`t respond to an opponent in a way that makes ittomatlly profitable tohave in a certain way.
the corollary is that you have to take advantage if your opponent responds to one of your moves in a way that`stomatlly profitable.
thises up most often inciding how often to raise or how often to fold to raises.
another a is never to limp on the button.
chris feron explained this to me in a way even i could urstand: `having the button is a big advantage.
if you always raise on your button and getlled, and your opponent always limps on his button and you check, you are playing a bigger pot on every hand where you have the advantage of position, and a smaller pot when you are at a positional disadvantage.`
the third a is the simple math related to the quality of therds.
if you are heads-up, it`s t two random hands.
you don`t have a table full of players with nothing invested, player after player with a shot at atter tword hand than you.
there is a greatal of folding equity in raising with anything,ce of the chance your opponent has something worse.
and you`re on easy street if your opponent folds too often.
finally, most hands aren`t that muchtter than other handsfore the flop.
a-k against 3-2 is y 2-to-1.
ess your opponent has a pocket overpair or some freak situation like you have q-7 and your opponent has k-7, you`re y about a 60/40 urdog most of the time.
even if you move with a-7 andn into 7-7, you are 30% to win.
if you have a-7 and your opponent is going to fold a bunch, youn live with that kind of downs.
so andy bloch goes into these tournaments thinking (a) i`m going to raise 90% or so of the time on the button; (b) i am going toll a lot of raises from the big blind; and (c) i am not going to correlate my post-flop play with the quality of myrds.
this last is very poorly urstood.
most players ` and it`s clear to me that this incls some of thest players in the world `lieve part offeating an aggressive opponent (and andy`s style of play is unquestionably aggressive) is trapping.
andy`s raising every big blind! he`s exposing helf to a trap as soon as an opponent picks up a big hand or a big flop, right?
ma, ma not.
if andy raises and you fold four times in a row, what`s he going to think when you raise him back? he kn you have strongrds, and he`s stolen so much the first four times that hen give one up, especiallyce you are very likely to have a big hand.
so what if you tll.
again, yourll tells andy volumes if you are routinely folding.
now he kn you have a good starting hand p he gets a shot to outflop you.
if he raised with th-7h and you flatlled him with queens.
he`ll check-fold or take a shot with a smallt and fold if the flop is a-k-4.
(but how good do you feel with you queens on that kind of flop anyway?) look what he does on the asional k-t-7 flop, though.
the practitioners of andy style, if they encounter an opponent who plays back when they are strong, simply steal their way to victory.
they give up their hands when they encounter resistance, which isn`t often.
that`s why the properfense is to play back with nothing.
if andy is raising 90% of the time and he gets reraised often enough, he kn youn`t have a-k or q-q every time.
now he has toll with some substandard hands, and he is the one who doesn`t know what to make of a q-7-4 flop, even though heught a piece.
against someone who plays like he does, he mightll at there.
against someone who plays back y when they have something, he`ll fold.
i`m sure i`lltch heat for it from mike maow when he finds out i said this, but i think andy bloch outplayed mike.
i couldn`t see therds or what happened on most of the hands, but i heard mikeplain that andy raised on the button 90 hands in a row (`and t my luck i get an ace the one time he folds`).
and he referred to andy`stting as `4,000, 4,000, 4,000` and `mr.
autot.` after the match, mike said, `he played so bad.
i couldn`t get a hand for three hours` ` the match went y an hour and a half ` `and i still got a chip lead.
all i ned was a hand when he kepttting,tting,tting and i could have taken him down.`
andy told me that he thought mike fod much too much and seemed to folding every hand he didn`t hit anything on the flop.
he was pretty sure mike almost never bluffed, and gave up a couple pots where he could have had a race or was ma getting the right odds toll but that he didn`t want to take the risk.
maow has one of thest tournament records ever: two bracelets, a toc win and a third place, twoop final tables, final tables at theop every year since 1999,lions andlions won.
he has played some superb short-had and heads-up matches during that time.
if we were to list the areas in which maow is supremely skilled in tournaments, i think you`d find most of those things drop in importance in a heads-up match where you areep-stacked for the first few levels, and very short-stacked after that.
this is e of many, many great tournament players.
this format plays into the strengths of a game theoretl player, which has helped chris feron finish second two years in a row and helped andy bloch this year.
of course, you gottatchrds.
:::: POKER ABSOLUTE :::: http://www.PokerAbsolute.ORG
Play Free Online Poker at:
PokerAbsolute.ORG
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Poker Freerolls, Satellite Poker and Daily Tournaments. Free signup.
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